“I’m dreaming of a white Christmas”; this is something that, no doubt, divides opinion. While there will be many who love snow and, especially at Christmas time – afterall, snow and Christmas go together like a, ah, “partridge in a pear tree” right?
For others though, it can cause unwanted stress, particularly due to the often plummeting temperatures and slippy conditions that come with it. Since online sports betting became a thing in the early 2000s, bookmakers have started offering a market on this outcome.
Simply put, the market is presented as a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ event and an option of choosing different cities around the UK. Usually for more northern areas such as Edinburgh the odds are shorter and so on.
Over the decades, the chances of snow falling, even in December in the UK, have decreased, especially with the effect of global warming. Since 1960, there have only been four years where the UK has had widespread and major snow at Christmas (1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010). As a result, bookies have tended to offer higher odds on a ‘yes’ outcome over the last few years and, barring a major climate shift, these are likely to remain the same for the foreseeable future.
The Met Office definition of a “White Christmas”, in the UK is defined as one single snowflake being observed falling during the 24 hours of December 25th at any of the Met Office’s 300+ weather stations.
Meanwhile, the bookmaker’s definition, for ensuring clarity when it comes to payouts, precise locations are specified. As such, major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick are monitored, with bookmakers going off data from official weather stations. As such, if a single snowflake is recorded, the bet wins.
The Odds Of A White Christmas
As we briefly touched upon, there have only been four years when we have had a widespread White Christmas in the UK; indeed, it is understood that 2010 had “the most perfect White Christmas ever”, with 83 percent of weather stations reporting snow on the ground (the highest ever).
Interestingly, though, in 2010 most of the country didn’t have an official white Christmas from a betting point of view. While the country was already covered in snow new snow only fell on Christmas Day on 30 weather stations. If you’d bet on a white Christmas that year you would have lost in most places. Compare that to 2004 where snow fell on 146 weather stations, for example. While widespread white Christmases are becoming rarer with climate change the chances of a white Christmas somewhere is largely unchanged since the 1960’s.
A white Christmas anywhere in the UK is actually really common. Since 1960 snow has fallen on at least one weather station in three out of ever four years. Therefore, if you bet on white Christmas anywhere in the UK expect very short odds of around 1/5 or worse. Most people do not bet on whether there will be a white Christmas generally though, with most bookies you are betting on whether it will happen in a specific place.
For 2025, the odds of a White Christmas are particularly varied, with northern cities being reported as the most likely, though over the years, the odds in favour have become increasingly higher.
The table below looks at the odds of a White Christmas for 2025 and the probability of this happening across a number of cities.
| City | Odds | Probability (Est) |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | Evens (1/1) | 50% |
| Edinburgh & Glasgow | 6/4 | 40% |
| Newcastle | 7/4 | 36% |
| Manchester & Leeds | 2/1 | 33% |
| London | 6/1 | 14% |
What is worth remembering here you are simply staking on a single snowflake falling in a particular city on the designated weather stations; bookmakers pay out on this, not on the odds of you being able to build a snowman.
These bets are pretty poor value too by the way. The margins here for bookies can be big, sometimes up to 50% of more. Compare that to a typical horse race that will have margin of around 15%. Therefore, it is a fun bet for a few quid but don’t be going staking loads on it.
That All Important Christmas Number One
Historically, it was considered traditional and almost ‘status quo’ for the UK Charts Christmas Number One to be a Christmas track, whether newly released or otherwise. There have been some years though, where tradition has been broken, perhaps most famously with Rage Against The Machine; ironically, about rebelling against the ‘status quo’.
During the 2000s and 2010s, the tradition veered towards X-Factor, with the winner usually having a Christmas track (or at least a feel-good ballad) released and more often than not, this would be voted the Christmas Number One.
Indeed, there are probably many people who only express any interest in the Charts Number One, around Christmas, especially those with a favourite Christmas track and an affinity for tradition.
Most Watched Christmas Day Show
Take your pick on Christmas Day in the UK when it comes to live television options. Many bookmakers offer a market on this and inevitably, the head of state’s speech (Queen or King’s Speech) is listed.
Every soap has always had a ‘Christmas Day Special’, where something dramatic happens, like a ‘whodunnit?’, while popular television dramas like Downton Abbey always historically aired a Christmas Special on Christmas Day night, which was usually an extended episode in between seasons that often ended on a cliffhanger.
Comedy shows like Only Fools And Horses were extremely popular during their heyday and you would have got great odds on these; of course each of these Christmas Specials being funnier and more poignant than others.